Post-Trade Analysis

Post-trade analysis is the habit of reviewing each closed trade to learn from it. The key idea is simple but easy to forget: a good result does not mean a good decision, and a bad result does not mean a bad one. A trader who follows a solid plan will still lose often. A trader who breaks every rule will sometimes win. Review exists to separate the two.

Grade the decision, not just the result#

Every trade falls into one of four boxes:

The dangerous box is "broke plan, good result": a bad trade that made money. It teaches you that breaking rules works. A box worth respecting is "followed plan, bad result", a planned trade that lost money, because accepting normal losses is part of the method. Psychologists call the habit of judging decisions by outcomes outcome bias.

The review questions#

For each closed trade, answer these in your Trading Journal:

1. Was it a plan trade? Did it match a defined setup?
2. Entry: was the entry where the plan said, or did I chase or hesitate?
3. Size: was the risk within my rule?
4. Stop: did the stop stay where it was placed, or was it moved the wrong way?
5. Exit: did I exit by the plan, or early out of fear or late out of hope?
6. What did the trade do after I was in? How far did it go against me and how far in my favour?
7. What would I do differently next time, if anything?
8. Grade: A for followed perfectly, B for minor slips, C for clear rule breaks.

Using MAE and MFE#

Two measurements make reviews far more precise:

• Maximum adverse excursion (MAE): the furthest the trade moved against you while open.
• Maximum favourable excursion (MFE): the furthest it moved in your favour.

The full method is in MAE and MFE.

Look for patterns, not single trades#

One trade tells you little. Patterns across many trades tell you a lot. Group your reviewed trades by:

• Setup: which setups have positive Expectancy?
• Time: do trades at certain times of day or days of the week do worse?
• Market: are some markets consistently harder for you?
• Grade: what is the average result of A grade trades compared with C grade trades?

Many traders find their A grade trades are profitable and their C grade trades produce nearly all of the losses. That is good news: the fix is behaviour, not strategy.

Turn findings into one change#

After each review period, pick the single most expensive issue and write one rule to address it. For example, "no new trades in the first 15 minutes of the session" or "stop moves only to breakeven after the trade reaches +1R." Change one thing at a time so you can tell whether it helped. See Trading Routine and Reviews for how often to do this.

Common mistakes#

• Only reviewing losses, which misses lucky wins built on bad habits.
• Rewriting the plan after every loss, which prevents any rule from being tested properly.
• Being vague. "Be more patient" is not actionable; "wait for the candle to close before entering" is.
• Ignoring missed trades, which can reveal hesitation that costs more than losses.

Frequently asked questions#

How do you analyse a trade?#

Check whether it followed your plan, how the entry, size, stop and exit compared with the rules, how far it moved for and against you, and what you would repeat or change.

Why should I review winning trades?#

Because some wins come from breaking rules. Reviewing them stops you from reinforcing habits that will eventually lose money.

How often should I review my trades?#

Log each trade the same day, review all trades weekly, and calculate statistics by setup and time monthly.

Next, build these reviews into a regular rhythm in Trading Routine and Reviews.