Retail Sales
The retail sales report tracks monthly US spending at stores, restaurants and online. Learn headline vs control group, revisions, inflation and market reactions.
The US retail sales report, published monthly by the Census Bureau, measures how much consumers spend at retailers, restaurants, gas stations and online stores. Because consumer spending is the largest part of the US economy, retail sales are one of the most watched indicators of economic health. The report comes out about two weeks after the month ends, earlier than most spending data, and can move bond yields, currencies and retail stocks.
What the report includes#
| Category | Examples |
|---|---|
| Motor vehicles and parts | Car dealers |
| Gasoline stations | Fuel sales |
| Food and beverage stores | Supermarkets |
| Food services and drinking places | Restaurants and bars |
| Nonstore retailers | Online sales |
| General merchandise | Department stores, warehouse clubs |
| Building materials | Home improvement stores |
| Electronics, clothing, furniture and others | Other store types |
Headline vs control group#
| Measure | Excludes | Why watched |
|---|---|---|
| Headline retail sales | Nothing | Overall spending |
| Ex autos | Motor vehicles | Auto sales are volatile |
| Ex autos and gas | Autos and gasoline | Removes price driven swings in fuel |
| Control group | Autos, gas, building materials and food services | Feeds directly into GDP estimates of goods consumption |
The control group is often the most market moving component because economists use it to estimate GDP. See GDP.
Nominal, not real#
Retail sales are reported in current dollars, not adjusted for inflation. When prices rise quickly, sales can grow even if the volume of goods bought is flat. In 2022, strong nominal retail sales partly reflected high inflation. Comparing retail sales growth with CPI goods inflation gives a rough sense of real spending. See Inflation and CPI and PCE.
Revisions and noise#
Monthly retail sales are volatile and revised in the following months, sometimes significantly. Weather, holidays, the timing of Easter and seasonal adjustment problems can distort single months. Traders look at three month trends and revisions as well as the latest number.
What retail sales tell traders#
| Signal | Possible market effect |
|---|---|
| Strong spending | Higher bond yields, stronger dollar, fewer expected rate cuts |
| Weak spending | Lower yields, weaker dollar, more expected cuts; possible recession worries |
| Category shifts | Insight for retail stocks: online vs stores, discretionary vs staples |
Retail stocks often react to the categories most relevant to them, such as restaurants or home improvement.
Alternative spending data#
Because official data come with a lag, investors also track:
- Card spending data from banks and payment companies. See Credit Card and Consumer Spending Data.
- Same store sales reported by retailers.
- Weekly chain store sales indices.
- Holiday season surveys and online sales trackers.
These can give earlier signals but cover only parts of spending. See Alternative Data Explained.
Release timing#
The advance retail sales report is usually released around the middle of the month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, covering the previous month, often in the same week as CPI. When both come out close together, traders combine them to judge whether spending is keeping up with prices.
Frequently asked questions#
What is the retail sales report?#
A monthly US Census Bureau release measuring spending at retail stores, restaurants, gas stations and online retailers.
What is the retail sales control group?#
Retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, used to estimate goods spending in GDP.
Is retail sales data adjusted for inflation?#
No. It is reported in nominal dollars, so higher prices can raise sales figures even if volumes do not grow.
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Mentioned in
- Macro TradingStrategies and Styles