Price to Beat and How Rounds Settle

The price to beat is the reference price at the start of a Polymarket up or down round. When the round ends, the final price is compared with it: if the final price is greater than or equal to the price to beat, Up wins; otherwise Down wins. It sounds simple, but where the number comes from, and why it can differ from the price you see elsewhere, matters a lot in short rounds where a few dollars can decide the outcome.

Where the price to beat comes from#

Each round's rules name the source:

• 5 minute, 15 minute and 4 hour rounds use a Chainlink price feed for the coin against the US dollar, sampled at the exact start time of the window. See Oracles.
• Hourly rounds use the open of the Binance 1 hour candle for the coin against USDT.
• Daily rounds use a Binance 1 minute candle at a set time.

Because rounds run back to back, the final price of one round is the price to beat of the next. A 15 minute round's price to beat matches the price at the start of the 5 minute round that begins at the same moment.

Why it differs from your exchange price#

This is similar to the difference between mark price and index price on crypto derivatives exchanges. See Mark Price vs Index Price.

Using the price to beat when trading#

The key quantity is the distance between the current price (from the settlement source) and the price to beat, compared with how much the price usually moves in the time left.

distance in standard moves = (current price - price to beat) / (volatility per second × √seconds left)

A bigger distance and less time left both push the fair odds further from 50¢. If Bitcoin typically moves about $60 in one minute (one standard move) and the price is $120 above the price to beat with one minute left, it is about two standard moves ahead. Under a normal approximation, the chance of finishing at or above the price to beat is then about 98%. Real crypto moves have fatter tails than a normal distribution, so treat this as a rough guide. See Normal Distribution and Fat Tails.

Practical tips#

1. Find the round's price to beat before trading, from the market page.
2. Watch the settlement source, not just your favourite exchange.
3. Respect time: early in a round, small distances mean little.
4. Be careful in the final seconds, when spreads widen and the feed may update a moment after you see a price.
5. Check the rules for the exact source and time; they can change.

The TradeLabs AI chart marks each round's price to beat on the candles so you can see the distance at a glance.

Common mistakes#

• Comparing a Binance price with a Chainlink price to beat in rounds that settle on Chainlink, or the reverse.
• Assuming the price to beat is the candle open on your chart.
• Forgetting ties count as Up.
• Ignoring volatility when judging whether a lead is safe.

Frequently asked questions#

What is the price to beat on Polymarket?#

The price at the start of an up or down round. Up wins if the final price is greater than or equal to it; otherwise Down wins.

Where does the price to beat come from?#

From the source named in the market rules: a Chainlink feed for 5 minute, 15 minute and 4 hour rounds, and Binance candles for hourly and daily rounds.

Why is the price to beat different from the price on my exchange?#

Different sources, quote currencies and timing mean prices can differ by a few dollars, which matters in short rounds.

Next, put it all together in Prediction Market Strategies and Risks.