Prediction Markets
6 lessons in this track so far, in the order we suggest reading them.
Prediction Markets
BeginnerWhat Are Prediction Markets?Prediction markets let you trade shares that pay $1 if an event happens. Learn how prices become probabilities, how they settle, the risks and how to start.BeginnerHow Polymarket WorksA clear guide to how Polymarket works: Yes and No shares, the order book, USDC, fees, how markets resolve through UMA and Chainlink, and the risks to know.BeginnerReading Odds as ProbabilitiesLearn to turn prediction market prices into probabilities, adjust for spreads and long shot bias, compare with your own estimate and find value with expected value.BeginnerUp or Down Markets ExplainedPolymarket's up or down markets ask whether a coin finishes a short window above its start price. Learn the round lengths, settlement sources, pricing and risks.BeginnerPrice to Beat and How Rounds SettleThe price to beat is the start price an up or down round must match or beat for Up to win. Learn where it comes from and why it differs from your exchange.BeginnerPrediction Market Strategies and RisksLearn practical prediction market strategies: research based value betting, news trading, arbitrage, market making and short round tactics, with risk rules for each.