Economics and Macro
17 lessons in this track so far, in the order we suggest reading them.
The Economy
IntermediateGDPGDP measures the total value of goods and services an economy produces. Learn how it is calculated, real vs nominal GDP, release timing and how markets react.IntermediateInflationInflation is the rate at which prices rise over time. Learn its causes, how it is measured, how central banks respond and how it affects stocks, bonds and gold.IntermediateCPI and PCECPI and PCE are the main US inflation measures. Learn how they differ, headline vs core, supercore, release timing and how traders react to inflation surprises.IntermediateEmployment Data and Non-Farm PayrollsThe US jobs report includes non farm payrolls, unemployment and wage growth. Learn what each number means, release timing, revisions and how markets react.IntermediatePMIPMIs survey purchasing managers about business conditions, giving an early read on growth. Learn how ISM and S&P Global PMIs work, the 50 line and market reactions.IntermediateConsumer ConfidenceConsumer confidence surveys measure how households feel about the economy. Learn the Conference Board and Michigan surveys, inflation expectations and market impact.IntermediateRetail SalesThe retail sales report tracks monthly US spending at stores, restaurants and online. Learn headline vs control group, revisions, inflation and market reactions.IntermediateBusiness and Economic CyclesEconomies move through expansions and contractions. Learn the phases of the business cycle, what drives them, how sectors and assets tend to behave and the limits.IntermediateRecession IndicatorsRecession indicators like the yield curve, the Sahm rule and leading indices have warned of past downturns. Learn how each works, its record and its limits.
Central Banks and Policy
IntermediateInterest RatesInterest rates are the price of money and a key driver of asset prices. Learn policy vs market rates, real rates and how rates move stocks, bonds and currencies.IntermediateCentral Banks ExplainedCentral banks set interest rates and manage money to control inflation and support growth. Learn their mandates, policy tools, communication and market impact.IntermediateThe Federal Reserve and the FOMCThe Federal Reserve sets US monetary policy through the FOMC. Learn how meetings work, the dot plot, statements and press conferences, and how Fed days trade.IntermediateThe ECB and the BOJThe ECB sets policy for the euro area and the Bank of Japan for Japan. Learn their mandates, tools like negative rates and yield curve control, and market effects.IntermediateMonetary vs Fiscal PolicyMonetary policy is run by central banks through rates and money; fiscal policy by governments through spending and taxes. Learn how each works and moves markets.IntermediateQuantitative Easing and TighteningQuantitative easing is central bank bond buying to lower long term rates; tightening reverses it. Learn how QE and QT work, their history and market effects.
Trading the Calendar
IntermediateTrading Economic ReleasesEconomic data releases cause sharp moves in rates, currencies and stocks. Learn the key US releases, how surprises are measured and how to manage the risk.IntermediateOptions Expiration and Triple WitchingTriple witching is when stock options, index options and index futures expire together. Learn when it happens, why volume spikes and how traders prepare.