Up or Down Markets Explained

Up or down markets are Polymarket's fastest markets. Each one asks a simple question about a crypto price over a fixed window: will the price at the end be higher than or equal to the price at the start? If yes, "Up" shares pay $1; if not, "Down" shares pay $1. Rounds run back to back, so a new market opens as soon as the last one closes. They attract traders who want short, frequent, crypto linked trades, and they behave very differently from long dated political or sports markets.

The basics#

What each round settles on#

The rules for each round name the exact price source, and they differ by round length:

This matters because different sources show slightly different prices. The price on your exchange app is not always the price the market settles on. Read the rules of every market you trade, because sources and details can change.

How the price moves during a round#

At the start of a round, Up and Down usually trade near 50¢ each, because the price has an even chance of finishing above or below its starting level. As the round progresses:

• If the coin rises above the price to beat, Up rises in value and Down falls.
• The closer to the end, the more each small price move matters, because there is less time for it to reverse.
• With seconds left and the price well above the price to beat, Up may trade at 95¢ or more.

What drives the odds#

The fair value of Up depends mainly on three things:

1. Distance between the current price and the price to beat.
2. Time left in the round.
3. Volatility: how much the coin typically moves in the remaining time. See Volatility.

These are the same inputs that price a binary option, which pays a fixed amount if the price is above a level at expiry. See Binary Options.

Settlement details#

• Rounds chain together: the end price of one round is the price to beat of the next.
• Ties go to Up: an end price exactly equal to the start counts as Up under the rules.
• Settlement is automatic for rounds settled by a price feed, so there is usually no human proposal or dispute.

Risks specific to short rounds#

• Speed and noise: over 5 or 15 minutes, crypto prices are close to random, so any edge is small.
• Spreads and fees take a bigger share of small, fast trades.
• Feed differences: watching the wrong price source can mislead you near the end of a round.
• Gambling style behaviour: back to back rounds make it easy to chase losses. See Revenge Trading and Gambler's Fallacy.

Watching rounds live#

It helps to see the price to beat, the current price from the same source and the market odds together. The TradeLabs AI chart shows each Polymarket round on the candles with its price to beat and live odds, which makes it easier to understand how distance and time drive prices.

Frequently asked questions#

What are Polymarket up or down markets?#

Short markets that ask whether a crypto price will finish a fixed window at or above its starting price. Up shares pay $1 if it does; Down shares pay $1 if it does not.

What happens if the price ends exactly at the price to beat?#

Under Polymarket's rules for these markets, an end price equal to the start counts as Up.

Which price do up or down markets use?#

It depends on the round length. Shorter rounds settle on a Chainlink price feed; hourly and daily rounds have used Binance candles. Always check the market rules.

Next, learn exactly how the starting level is set in Price to Beat and How Rounds Settle.