# Crypto and Prediction Markets Learning Path > An ordered route through crypto trading and prediction markets: Bitcoin basics, exchanges, perpetual futures, funding, Polymarket and up or down rounds. Source: https://learn.tradelabsai.com/start-here/crypto-learning-path/ Track: Start Here · Level: Beginner · Updated: 2026-10-03 Publisher: TradeLabs AI (https://tradelabsai.com). Education, not financial advice. Cite as: TradeLabs Learn, "Crypto and Prediction Markets Learning Path", https://learn.tradelabsai.com/start-here/crypto-learning-path/ Crypto and prediction markets move fast, trade around the clock and have their own mechanics, from funding rates on perpetual futures to Yes and No shares that pay $1. This path takes you through them in an order that builds understanding step by step. It assumes you have read the first three stages of the [Beginner Learning Path](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/start-here/beginner-learning-path/), or already know how orders and spreads work. ## Why crypto needs its own path Crypto markets never close, so prices react to news at 3 a.m. on a Sunday. Most trading volume happens on perpetual futures rather than spot, which brings leverage and liquidations into everyday price action. And prediction markets such as Polymarket use a completely different payout: instead of a price that can go anywhere, each share is worth $1 or $0 at the end. Each of these needs its own lessons before it makes sense. ## Stage 1: Crypto basics 1. [Blockchain Basics](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/blockchain-basics/) 2. [Bitcoin](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/bitcoin/) 3. [Ethereum](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/ethereum/) 4. [Altcoins](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/altcoins/) 5. [Stablecoins](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/stablecoins/) 6. [Centralized vs Decentralized Exchanges](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/cex-vs-dex/) 7. [Crypto Spot Trading](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/crypto-spot-trading/) **Practice:** compare the spread and 24 hour volume of Bitcoin, Ether and a small token on the same exchange. ## Stage 2: Crypto derivatives Most crypto price action is driven by leveraged futures, so understanding them explains moves that otherwise look random. 1. [Leverage](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/markets/leverage/) 2. [Perpetual Futures](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/perpetual-futures/) 3. [Funding Rates](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/funding-rates/) 4. [Mark Price vs Index Price](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/mark-price-vs-index-price/) 5. [Liquidations in Crypto](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/liquidations-in-crypto/) 6. [Insurance Funds and Auto-Deleveraging](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/auto-deleveraging/) 7. [Crypto Futures and Basis](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/crypto-futures-and-basis/) 8. [Funding and Basis Arbitrage](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/funding-and-basis-arbitrage/) **Practice:** watch funding rates on Bitcoin perpetuals for a week and note what happened to price after funding turned strongly positive or negative. ## Stage 3: On-chain and DeFi 1. [On-Chain Analytics](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/on-chain-analytics/) 2. [Wallet and Exchange Flows](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/wallet-and-exchange-flows/) 3. [DeFi Basics](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/defi-basics/) 4. [Oracles](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/oracles/) 5. [MEV](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/mev/) 6. [Bridge and Smart Contract Risk](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/bridge-and-smart-contract-risk/) 7. [Token Unlocks and Vesting](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/token-unlocks-and-vesting/) 8. [Tokenomics and Protocol Revenue](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/tokenomics-and-protocol-revenue/) ## Stage 4: Prediction markets Prediction markets turn questions into tradable probabilities. Short term crypto rounds on Polymarket combine everything from the stages above: the underlying coin's price, a precise settlement source and an order book of Yes and No shares. 1. [What Are Prediction Markets?](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/prediction-markets/what-are-prediction-markets/) 2. [How Polymarket Works](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/prediction-markets/how-polymarket-works/) 3. [Reading Odds as Probabilities](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/prediction-markets/reading-odds-as-probabilities/) 4. [Expected Value](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/math/expected-value/) 5. [Up or Down Markets Explained](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/prediction-markets/up-or-down-markets-explained/) 6. [Price to Beat and How Rounds Settle](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/prediction-markets/price-to-beat/) 7. [Prediction Market Strategies and Risks](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/prediction-markets/prediction-market-strategies/) **Practice:** follow ten 15 minute Bitcoin rounds without trading. Before each one closes, write down your own probability, then compare it with the market price and the result. **Note: Watching rounds live** The [TradeLabs AI chart](https://tradelabsai.com/chart) shows Polymarket's short Bitcoin rounds next to the price they settle on, with each round's price to beat and the market odds, which makes the practice above easier. ## Stage 5: Risk for fast markets Fast, 24 hour markets punish weak risk control more than any other. 1. [Position Sizing](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/risk/position-sizing/) 2. [Maximum Trade Risk and Daily Loss Limits](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/risk/daily-loss-limit/) 3. [Risk of Ruin](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/risk/risk-of-ruin/) 4. [Overtrading](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/psychology/overtrading/) 5. [Tilt](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/psychology/tilt/) 6. [Trading Journal](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/start-here/trading-journal/) ## Common mistakes on this path - **Jumping to leverage first.** Learn spot trading and position sizing before perpetual futures. - **Treating prediction markets like a game.** Short rounds feel casual, but every share bought at 60¢ is a 60¢ risk. Track your results against the prices you paid. - **Ignoring settlement rules.** In both futures and prediction markets, the exact price source and time decide the outcome. Read them. - **Trading every hour of the day.** Markets never close; you should. Set trading hours and a daily loss limit. ## Frequently asked questions ### Is crypto trading harder than stock trading? It is not more complex in principle, but it is faster, open around the clock and often leveraged, which makes mistakes more costly. Strong risk rules matter even more. ### Do I need to know crypto to trade prediction markets? For crypto rounds such as Polymarket's Bitcoin up or down markets, it helps a lot to understand how the coin trades and what moves it. For other topics, such as economics or sports, you need knowledge of that subject instead. ### How much should I risk on a prediction market trade? The same small fraction of your account you would risk on any trade. A share can go to zero, so the full amount paid is at risk. After this path, the [Quant Trading Learning Path](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/start-here/quant-trading-learning-path/) shows how to test crypto and prediction market ideas with data. ## Continue learning - Next lesson: [Options Learning Path](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/start-here/options-learning-path/) - Previous lesson: [Beginner Learning Path](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/start-here/beginner-learning-path/) - Related: [Beginner Learning Path](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/start-here/beginner-learning-path/): A step by step route through the beginner trading lessons, from how markets work and order types to charts, risk management and your first real trades. - Related: [What Are Prediction Markets?](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/prediction-markets/what-are-prediction-markets/): Prediction markets let you trade shares that pay $1 if an event happens. Learn how prices become probabilities, how they settle, the risks and how to start. - Related: [Bitcoin](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/bitcoin/): Bitcoin is the first and largest cryptocurrency, with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Learn how it works, halvings, what moves its price and how to trade it. - Related: [Perpetual Futures](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/crypto/perpetual-futures/): Perpetual futures are crypto derivatives with no expiry, kept close to spot by funding payments. Learn how perps work, leverage, margin, funding and the main risks. - Related: [How Polymarket Works](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/prediction-markets/how-polymarket-works/): A clear guide to how Polymarket works: Yes and No shares, the order book, USDC, fees, how markets resolve through UMA and Chainlink, and the risks to know.