# Seasonality in Commodities > Many commodities follow seasonal patterns tied to weather, harvests and demand. Learn key patterns in grains, energy and softs, how to measure them and their limits. Source: https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/seasonality-in-commodities/ Track: Commodities · Level: Intermediate · Updated: 2026-10-03 Publisher: TradeLabs AI (https://tradelabsai.com). Education, not financial advice. Cite as: TradeLabs Learn, "Seasonality in Commodities", https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/seasonality-in-commodities/ Seasonality is the tendency of some commodity prices and spreads to follow recurring patterns during the year. Crops are planted and harvested on a calendar, heating and cooling demand rises and falls with the weather, and driving and refining follow seasonal cycles. These patterns affect both outright prices and the spreads between contract months. Seasonality gives traders a useful framework, but it is a tendency, not a rule, and weather or policy shocks can overwhelm it. ## Why commodities are seasonal | Source | Example | |---|---| | Crop cycles | Grain prices often reflect weather risk during the growing season and harvest supply in autumn | | Heating demand | Natural gas and heating oil demand rises in winter | | Cooling demand | Summer power demand lifts natural gas burned in power plants | | Driving season | US gasoline demand peaks in summer | | Refinery maintenance | Spring and autumn turnarounds reduce product supply | | Fuel specifications | Summer gasoline blends cost more to produce | | Holiday demand | Some softs and livestock demand peaks around holidays | ## Grain seasonality Northern Hemisphere corn and soybeans are planted in spring and harvested in autumn. A typical pattern: 1. **Spring and early summer:** uncertainty about planting and weather can add a "weather premium" to prices. 2. **July and August:** pollination and pod setting are critical; weather scares can spike prices. 3. **Harvest (September to November):** new supply arrives, and prices often reach seasonal lows ("harvest lows"). South American crops, especially Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, follow the opposite calendar, which partly offsets these patterns in global markets. See [Corn](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/corn/) and [Soybeans](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/soybeans/). ## Energy seasonality - **Natural gas:** storage builds from April to October (injection season) and draws from November to March (withdrawal season). Winter contracts usually trade at a premium to summer contracts. See [Natural Gas](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/natural-gas/). - **Gasoline:** RBOB futures often strengthen into spring as refiners switch to summer blends ahead of the driving season. See [Gasoline and Heating Oil](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/gasoline-and-heating-oil/). - **Heating oil:** demand peaks in winter, especially in the US Northeast. ## Seasonality in spreads Seasonal patterns are often stronger in spreads than in outright prices. **Example: A natural gas winter premium** In spring, natural gas for January delivery trades at $3.80 per million British thermal units, while the following April contract trades at $3.10. The winter premium of $0.70 reflects the cost of storing gas over summer and the risk of a cold winter. A cold forecast in November might widen the spread to $1.20; a mild winter could collapse it. Traders use calendar spreads to trade this seasonal premium. See [Calendar Spreads in Futures](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/futures/calendar-spreads-in-futures/). ## Measuring seasonality 1. **Collect many years of data,** ideally 10 to 20 or more, using continuous or specific contract months. See [Continuous Futures and Back-Adjustment](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/futures/continuous-futures/). 2. **Average the price path** through the year, often normalised to the same starting point. 3. **Count how often** the pattern occurred, not just the average move. 4. **Check the reason:** seasonal patterns backed by real supply and demand cycles are more reliable than random calendar quirks. **Watch out: Beware of data mining** With enough data, almost any calendar pattern can be found by chance. A seasonal trade should have a clear economic reason and should be tested out of sample. See [P-Hacking and Multiple Testing](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/research/p-hacking-and-multiple-testing/) and [In-Sample vs Out-of-Sample Testing](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/research/out-of-sample-testing/). ## When seasonality fails - **Weather extremes:** droughts, floods and heat waves break normal patterns, as in the 2012 US drought that sent corn to record highs. - **Policy shocks:** export bans or biofuel mandates. - **Macro and dollar moves.** - **Changing structure:** shale gas, LNG exports and new production regions alter seasonal patterns over time. ## Frequently asked questions ### What is seasonality in commodities? The tendency for commodity prices or spreads to follow recurring patterns during the year, driven by weather, crop cycles and seasonal demand. ### Which commodities are most seasonal? Natural gas, grains such as corn and soybeans, gasoline and heating oil show some of the clearest seasonal patterns. ### Can you trade seasonality reliably? Seasonal tendencies can help, but they often fail when weather, policy or market structure changes, so they should be combined with fundamentals and risk control. Next, learn how storage shapes prices in [Storage and Inventories](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/storage-and-inventories/). ## Continue learning - Next lesson: [Storage and Inventories](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/storage-and-inventories/) - Previous lesson: [Commodity Market Fundamentals](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/commodity-market-fundamentals/) - Related: [Commodity Market Fundamentals](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/commodity-market-fundamentals/): Commodity prices are driven by physical supply and demand, inventories, the dollar and weather. Learn the main sectors, key drivers, participants and data. - Related: [Calendar Spreads in Futures](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/futures/calendar-spreads-in-futures/): A futures calendar spread buys one contract month and sells another. Learn bull and bear spreads, what moves them, seasonality and a worked crude oil example. - Related: [Natural Gas](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/natural-gas/): Natural gas prices are driven by weather, storage, production and LNG exports. Learn Henry Hub futures, the storage report, seasonality and why gas is so volatile. - Related: [Corn](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/corn/): Corn is the largest US crop, used for feed, ethanol and exports. Learn corn futures, the crop calendar, USDA reports, key demand sources and what moves prices. - Related: [Gasoline and Heating Oil](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/gasoline-and-heating-oil/): RBOB gasoline and ULSD heating oil futures track refined fuel prices. Learn the contracts, what drives them, seasonal patterns, crack spreads and who trades them. - Related: [Storage and Inventories](https://learn.tradelabsai.com/commodities/storage-and-inventories/): Inventories are the buffer between commodity supply and demand. Learn the theory of storage, how stocks affect prices and curves, and the key inventory reports.